Thursday 8th January 2026

Cold with rain at times, but perhaps some sleet/snow falling too – quite a mixed and complex picture.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph – rare I get to use a wintry one, so using whilst it is relevant!

Accurate forecasting period is unusually short at the moment, probably 3 days at best.

So we start the forecast period with cold air still in place, though now in a more mobile westerly flow, with Storm Goretti very quickly developing to our south-west.

Thursday starts cloudy, perhaps with a spot of drizzle. Some brightness possible in the morning before the main area of rain arrives around 1pm give or take, some heavy bursts, perhaps a bit of sleet mixed in but most likely it is all rain. Around 4’C. The main rain clears for a while around mid-evening, though there will still be showers – briefly milder, up to around 9’C. Colder air then tucks in as the low pressure moves east overnight, down to around 2’C – and the back edge of the weather front will cross with a mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow falling. I cannot rule out a light slushy covering, but rain/sleet more likely. Windy at times, notably before and around dawn.

Friday is a cloudy day, with bits and pieces of rain and sleet in the morning, perhaps wet snow if precipitation is heavy enough, gradually easing east. Around 4’C but feeling notably cold in a rather raw wind. Skies should gradually clear overnight, though a fairly close call – it could stay cloudy. Assuming it clears then a frost will form, down to around -1’C.

Saturday looks reasonably bright with sunny spells at times, though also various amounts of cloud too. Around 3’C and breezy – still pretty cold. Clear skies likely at least at first overnight, with a frost – roughly down to around -2’C. A chance of fog forming, perhaps generally clouding over later in the night.

By Sunday we start to see more of a westerly flow pushing across, and signs of something milder too.

Quite a lot of uncertainty over how much resistance the cold air block will have, so the weather front and associated rain (most likely rain, anyway) could arrive in the morning, or maybe not until evening – but the generally trend will be for it to cloud over, with rain arriving at some point, and becoming windier, and slowly, milder.

By Monday we should, should…be back in mild air, say around 11’C or so. Details otherwise uncertain, likely to be some showers around or a spell of rain.

Tuesday similarly mild and uncertain on details – some rain probable at some point.

After that, more likely temperatures are around average or slightly above, with some rain around on some days but also some reasonable spells of dry weather, and hopefully some sunshine at times too.

So I’ve said all this about it returning to milder and somewhat unsettled conditions, but it is still possible that the cold air could hang on instead, maybe it’s a 10% chance. Once Storm Goretti has cleared, things should be clearer in terms of forecasting – it is quite a pivotal low pressure system in terms of what happens afterwards.

Forecasting this last two weeks has been significantly more difficult than normal, and has gone against seasonal expectations – I suspect that the SSW that happened in November is having some effect on both our weather, and the more chaotic output of the weather models that I rely on, which really have been all over the shop at times (my favoured model, the ECM, even had a full-on 1960’s style snow-fest two days ago…which seemed…bizarre).

My assumption is that the upcoming (likely upcoming anyway) spell of fairly unsettled weather won’t last too long, and by the end of January at the latest, we’ll see high pressure having more influence again.

I do feel February, though a mixed month, should see dry and mild conditions dominate somewhat.

Unless…we get another sudden stratospheric warming, in which case we could have more notably cold spells in February. A very possible outcome.

No particular strong signals for early spring (yes I am craving warm sunshine). I’d suggest slightly drier and milder than normal is more likely. There is a signal for something wetter than normal for late spring, though this is 4 months away, so the signal may well fade by time we get closer to May.