Thursday 15th October 2026

Unusually warm today but back to more normal tomorrow – often dry but not always.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

The general set-up sees the Azores high stretching across the south-east of England, bringing the warmth – though a weather front will push through later.

Thursday starts fairly cloudy, we might even squeeze a spot or two of rain out of it. Gradually it will brighten up with good spells of sunshine in the afternoon, especially later in the afternoon – and warm too, reaching around 21’C. Also rather breezy later. Becoming cloudier overnight, with some outbreaks of rain after midnight. Very mild for much of the night, though down to around 10’C by dawn.

Friday initially starts cloudy with some rain but will quickly clear to sunny spells. Fair-weather cloud will bubble up, with around a 30% chance of a shower, but still reasonable spells of sunshine too. Much fresher, around 15’C and breezy. Mostly clear skies overnight, and chilly, down to around 5’C.

High pressure is in control for Saturday but with a northerly (ish) breeze so feeling cooler. Plenty of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud, a 10% chance of a shower. Around 13’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees the wind switch more north-easterly. Some sunny spells, but plenty of cloud – increasingly so, and increasing chances of showers as the day goes on. Around 13’C – feeling cool in the wind. Showers or showery rain possible overnight – though some uncertainty at this stage, and also uncertain on temperatures. Rain – then around 10’C, no rain then around 5’C.

By Monday, high pressure is centred over Scandinavia, stretching all the way down to the Azores, with a low pressure over France.

A lot of uncertainty on details, and this will be the case until the exact development of this low pressure is decided. Cloud more likely than sun, a bit of rain possible, temperatures probably up a little from the weekend, say 15’C.

By Tuesday the low pressure should be further west, but still a chance of showers. Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts, probably at least some of both, breezy and quite warm more likely – around 16’C or so.

Where we go from there is uncertain – a few days ago I was confident that high pressure would be in control until at least the end of October (which was something I wasn’t expecting a week before that!) and now…hmmm, not so sure.

Low pressure going east to west is unusual at our latittude, because of the jetstream, but the jetstream is way to our north, and kind of doing like a weak figure of 8 back through Europe, hence the low pressure going west to east near us – which the models don’t handle so well, because it is unusual.

What it could do, the low pressure system, is merge with another low further west in the Atlantic in the middle of next week – perhaps then reversing and crossing the UK later next week to bring some wet and windy weather – but also perhaps heading south to Spain, and high pressure builds across the UK again.

Also there might be an ex-tropical storm in the mix around the same time further west in the Atlantic.

Which is me basically saying anything could happen later next week. But at least I’ve kind of explained (if rushed it) as to why.

Have a good end of week – next forecast should be on Sunday morning.