Thunderstorm Chances

Hello from Ljubljana…airport, alas.

Just a little update on the chance of thunderstorms tonight. As ever it’s impossible in these scenarios to give more than broad chance forecast, convection will do what convection will do, and it will be a case of keeping an eye on radars, satellite images and the sky.

However, thunderstorms will break out this evening, any time from 7pm onwards, though I suspect 9/10pm onwards more likely.

Where they will break out is uncertain, I’d say Kent, Essex, that kind of area is more likely, but certainly around a 40% chance here.

The places with the most intense action could see large hail, damaging gusts of wind, torrential rain, localised flooding and/or copious lightning.

More places will just see some showery rain, possibly heavy/very heavy, and possibly some thunder/lightning. This is what seems more likely in this area…but we’ll see.

Also still keeping an eye out on the chances of some record-breaking heat, either for next weekend or the week after. The scenario keeps cropping up in some models, I’ve even seen the 40’C mark reached on one model run, though it is the model I trust least…which is insane for June, even insane that it has been modelled.

Far more likely will be high 20’s or low 30’s. The June record of 35.6’C being broken I’d guess a 25% chance, 40’C during June is no more than a 1% chance. Certainly some impactful weather is possible ahead of us.

I will do a full forecast either Saturday or Sunday, I guess.