Spring Weather Forecast 2026

Ahhh spring has sprung – we are (surely?!) past the grimmest and coldest weather, and time for nature to come back alive. So welcome to my Spring Weather Forecast 2026.

It’s aimed at Reading & Berkshire, but anywhere in south/central kind of England this could probably be extended to.

Usual admin bits – seasonal forecasting is experimental and almost certainly always will be. You can have a good idea of the general pattern from background signals, but then events somewhere in the world can subtly change the jetstream pattern (for example) and you end up with something totally different.

Some of this will be wrong. Hopefully I get more right than wrong – that is the aim. I will offer confidence levels for each month.

My winter forecast was probably more wrong than right – December was milder than normal as I expected, but I was expecting more rain than we had. For January I didn’t foresee the cold start to the month – I thought that would have been more mid-month, and rainfall was well above average, as opposed to slightly above average, which I thought more likely.

For February I had exceptionally low confidence, so I’m not too worried that it was off – I did get the broad-scale pattern of high pressure to our north-east right, as that weather pattern was stuck for weeks, but not that low pressure would be stuck close by.

Thanks to Gavin for the photograph.

Background Signals

Generally there are fewer background signals for spring than winter, and they tend to have less impact.

La Niña is still a thing, so this will mean westerly flows are more likely than normal.

The Quasi-biennial oscillation is now descending westerly, so that also should encourage westerly flows.

El Niño seems likely to replace La Niña towards the summer, so this may also influence our weather going into summer, but this is outside this forecast period.

And finally, it looks like a sudden stratospheric warming event is about to happen – so assuming it does, then the chance of northerly or easterly flows will increase in the weeks after. Northerly flows are always colder than normal, easterly flows are more likely colder then normal in early spring, though this probability reverses as the continent warms up during the season. Though easterly flows can always drag in lots of cloud from the North Sea, even during summer.

March

March will start with notably above-average temperatures and mostly dry conditions, often sunny – the occasional weather front will sneak through too. Some very pleasant sunny and quite warm days are very possible – say in the range of 16’C to 18’C. A chance of some overnight mist/fog/low cloud lasting into some mornings.

From around mid-month, maybe a little later, more likely it becomes more changeable, with some spells of wind and rain on some days. Temperatures often still above-average, though occasionally average – which will feel cool given the start of the month. Perhaps a frost in any cooler spells – and chances of cold snaps (and possible wintry showers) increases towards month end, if not especially high chances.

Overall I expect well above-average temperatures, above-average sunshine amounts and below-average rainfall.

Confidence level 80%.

April

April is more uncertain to due to effects of the likely sudden stratospheric warming event from early March, but I think we have to assume high pressure is more likely to our north, low pressure to our south.

Therefore I’d expect a cool start to the month with northerly/easterly flows more likely, quite cloudy, some showers at times – don’t be too surprised if there are wintry showers in any more potent northerly/easterly flows.

Perhaps then more widely unsettled for a time mid-month.

Towards the end of April, more chance of some warmer (ish) conditions, though showers remaining very possible.

Overall I expect around average temperatures, below-average sunshine amounts, slightly above-average rainfall.

Confidence level of 20% due to the SSW event – as we don’t know where the pieces will fall, and hence anything could be on the cards, from a significant colder than normal spell, a very wet spell or something very pleasant like last year.

May

Again a lot of uncertainty for May, we’ll probably have the overhang of the SSW – whatever that may be, and background signals are suggesting a wetter than normal month too.

The aspect I’m more confident of is temperatures broadly being above-average for much of the month, so generally warm, occasionally very warm/humid.

I’d argue the wetter conditions more likely early on in the month, drier and sunnier more likely later – though some downpours will be very possible in the warmer and sunnier days.

Overall I expect above-average temperatures, around average sunshine amounts and above-average rainfall.

Confidence level of 40% due to the SSW, and how that interplays with potentially conflicting background signals. I am more confident of both temperatures and rainfall being above average – general weather patterns, such as where high/low pressure systems will be lack confidence, and hence sunshine/cloud amounts too.

Summary & Early Summer Thoughts

So we go into spring with a warmer than normal start, but then it quickly becomes much more uncertain due to the SSW. This time last year we had an SSW and spring ended up pretty glorious…so that could happen, but I’m taking the probabilistically more likely route as I see it.

I do stress this seasonal forecast has lower than normal confidence levels for April/May.

Overall it’s a fairly mixed picture, drier in March, wetter April/May.

Early summer thoughts are for a hotter and wetter than normal season – with some short very hot spells followed by downpours very likely in mid-summer. August perhaps the more disappointing month, with a fairly keen signal for an unsettled month, if El Niño comes to pass as expected.