Friday 13th October 2023

Some rain, then colder.

Thanks to JoJo for the photograph – from July, but its kind of similar vibes today.

This morning starts warm but cloudy, some showers around which could be heavy. These push east to leave a few dry hours roughly late morning into early afternoon – some heavy sunshine and it will be warm, at around 20’C. Then showery rain pushes south-east later in the day, some heavy bursts likely, roughly between mid/late afternoon and early evening. Windy, especially this morning – much cooler once the rain clears this evening. Mostly clear skies in a chilly NNW breeze overnight, down to around 6’C.

For the weekend we have something colder, with a northerly flow setting up for Saturday.

Plenty of sunshine for Saturday, some fair weather cloud and one or two scattered showers – say a 50% chance of catching one or two, fairly innocuous. Feeling much cooler, around 13’C in a north-westerly breeze. Clear skies overnight and chilly, down to around 3’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, though becoming hazier in the afternoon. Just 11’C though – quite the change. Down to around 2’C overnight – the high-level cloud stopping it getting to freezing point.

By Monday, high pressure remains in control, though low pressure will be trying to edge in from the south-west – which means a continuation of the hazy sunshine of Sunday, and temperatures around 12’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, and hence temperatures – though on the chilly side most likely.

For Tuesday, likely there will be reasonable amounts of sunshine, if perhaps hazy sunshine – some uncertainty on cloud amounts due to the uncertainty positioning of low pressure to our south/south-west. Around 14’C so feeling a bit milder, though breezy, if not windy.

Wednesday is when confidence starts to break down more – we likely see low pressure trying to push north, though the high pressure block won’t give way easily.

Take this with a pinch of salt, but something along the lines of hazy sunshine to start – chances of showery rain later in the day. This will need a couple more days to firm up, as it is a bit of a tricky transition. Fairly confident it will be windy, and temperatures roughly around 13’C.

Thursday more likely to see some showery rain – though probably also something slightly warmer, say around 16’C.

Again the forecast for next weekend depends on where this low pressure close to our south-west is, and where the high pressure close to our north-east is. Whichever is closer will determine our weather – it does look like a fairly blocked situation with neither moving too far for a few days at least.

So it could be rather wet/showery but mild, or it could be drier but cooler. Either way, a good chance of it being windy.

Have a good weekend. Maybe make sure your heating still works and find those jumpers!