Thursday 6th February 2025

An easterly is setting up, so becoming colder and fairly mixed, some sunshine, some cloud, some bits of rain – perhaps some wintriness too.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with an easterly flow setting up, as high pressure migrates towards Scandinavia. An easterly flow is colder than normal most of the year (bar May to September…and even then North Sea cloud can still make it colder than normal) – though the continent isn’t that cold, so we are not tapping into deep cold or anything. Which makes any precipitation more likely to be rain…but we’ll see.

Today starts sunny in most places, though there will still be the chance of some morning fog patches. From roughly lunchtime onwards, some cloud will float across from the east, but still some sunny spells. Around 7’C. Cloud building overnight, the odd shower possible, down to around 3’C.

Friday will be mostly cloudy with some showers, mostly falling as rain but some sleet/wet snow possibly mixed in. Around 4’C and feeling cold in the easterly wind. The rain and possible sleet/wet snow a bit more continuous in the evening for a time, then more patchy for the rest of the night. Around 3’C.

By Saturday, the flow is more south-easterly and a touch less cold, say 5’C. Staying cloudy, some bits of rain but dry for much of the time. Some uncertainty overnight – cloud may clear, though fog would probably form anyway, otherwise (and slightly more likely) staying cloudy. Around 2’C, give or take.

A lot of uncertainty on cloud amounts on Sunday, it could be anywhere from cloudy all day to sunny all day, though something on the cloudier side of the spectrum is more likely. Temperatures again uncertain, somewhere between 5’C and 9’C. Most likely dry but some occasional drizzle possible if cloudy, and the easterly breeze picking up. Probably still too much cloud and breeze overnight for a frost, down to around 2’C – though something frosty cannot be ruled out. The odd shower possible also.

For Monday we are back in our not especially cold easterly. Not especially cold because weather systems are still going to the north – and Arctic air cannot get into eastern Europe or western Russia.

A fairly cloudy day likely with some showers probable. It will again be a bit colder, 4’C, maybe 5’C – showers should be of rain, but a small chance of sleet/wet snow instead, or at least mixed in. Mostly cloudy overnight with some probably light rain at times, and around 3’C.

For Tuesday, the easterly flow continues, more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum, some bits of light rain possible, and roughly around 5’C – give or take, still feeling pretty cold in the breeze.

The fairly cold easterly flow will probably gradually turn more southerly as next week goes on, broadly similar weather – often cloudy, some sunshine, some showers possible and temperatures a tad under normal for the time of year.

Perhaps something a bit milder by next weekend…but that’s a long way away.

A lot of uncertainty for the second half of February – that high pressure block to our north-east will take some shifting, so there’s certainly a chance that cold weather could return, perhaps even something colder than this easterly.

Though it may also orientate itself to allow milder southerly flows (my original thoughts for late February, though seems less likely now).

Or perhaps we have a more unsettled spell.

The other factor is the warming of the stratosphere – definitely not a sudden stratospheric warming event (though still a 10% chance of one later in February) – but perhaps enough of a warming to shift weather patterns down here. Cannot say I understand the vagaries of stratospheric and tropospheric interplay enough to know what impact it might have…but if anything maybe it increases the chance of an unsettled spell for the second half of February from what I’ve read this week…though I stress that I’m not sure.

Of course, when I am sure what the weather will be in the second half of February, you will know too. Have a good weekend.