Thursday 10th July 2025

Heatwave number 3 is here. More uncertain after the weekend though.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

The general synoptic overview sees the Azores high well in control, stretching all the way up to Scandinavia. The intense heat over western Europe has abated too.

So today (Thursday) sees long spells of hot sunshine, and just a little bit of cloud. Reaching around 30’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, no lower than 17’C.

Friday will again see long spells of hot sunshine, and just a little bit of cloud. Temperatures up a notch to around 31’C, maybe 32’C at a push. Clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, probably no lower than 18’C.

Saturday sees long spells of hot sunshine, and just a little bit of cloud. Again around 31’C. A slightly more comfortable night, again mostly clear skies and down to around 16’C.

Things start to get a bit uncertain on Sunday – broadly speaking it will stay hot, though there is a chance of some cloud moving in from the North Sea early on Sunday, to bring a spell of cloudy skies – whether it reaches here and if so how long it lasts is uncertain. Sunshine is more likely than cloud overall though, and temperatures more likely towards 29’C – though a cloudier spell would reduce that. Probably some cloud and perhaps a shower overnight, down to around 16’C…ish.

By Monday we start to see low pressure try to move in.

However, it is very uncertain as to whether it will cross the country – some models have it spinning back into the Atlantic towards an area of low pressure further to the west.

So a vague forecast for Monday, probably still hot, say 26’C to 29’C more likely, probably at least some sunny spells – a chance of a band of heavy showers crossing at some point.

From Tuesday onwards it could be anything really. I’d say there is probably around a 30% chance that high pressure builds in once more and we end up back in heatwave territory by the end of the week.

But more likely, say 70% chance, is some mixture of conditions, with some showery rain/showers on some days, very warm (maybe hot) sunny spells on other days.

I do stress the uncertainty for next week, there are a lot of conflicting signals, and model outputs.