Sunday 20th July 2025

A showery few days, with some potent downpours possible – but trending drier as the week goes on.

Thanks to Peter for the photograph.

The general overview sees a fairly potent low pressure in charge, which will move north-east across the UK over the next couple of days, before splitting into two weaker areas of low pressure.

A mostly cloudy start to Sunday with bits of showery rain. Fairly quickly some heavy/very heavy showers will break out, most places seeing a couple but perhaps you miss them all. Sunnier for the afternoon, still some scattered heavy showers at first, perhaps thundery, but those becoming fewer as the day goes on. A fresher feel though still warm at around 23’C, and quite breezy. Clearer skies in the evening, then cloudier overnight with some showers possible after midnight. Around 15’C.

Monday sees low pressure pretty much on top of us and it is pretty much a perfect recipe for downpours. Sunshine limited though some at times, plenty of cloud and plenty of showers. Some uncertainty over exact details, we will need a little sunshine to develop any really potent downpours – there’s a good chance of some torrential and thundery downpours developing, hail possible too, especially in the afternoon/early evening – there is a Met Office weather warning out, a slightly more agreeable one than the amber warning for Saturday gone. However there is a chance instead of more general cloud and showery rain, which would stop any real torrential downpours developing, or at least reduce the chances. Around 22’C and breezy, perhaps gusty in any downpours. Showers fading in the evening with variable amounts of cloud overnight, down to around 15’C.

Tuesday likely sees quite a lot of cloud, but some sunshine at times – probably more so in the early part of the morning. Some showers possible, but far fewer than Monday and generally less likely to be heavy if you do catch one or two. Warm, around 23’C or so in a north-westerly (ish) breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, a shower possible, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday is back to some sunny spells but plenty of heavy showers. Some uncertainty on the distribution, there is maybe a 20% chance that we avoid them all, but 80% likely we’ll see at least a few heavy/very heavy showers, thunder possible. Reaching around 23’C so warm in the sunny spells. Showers fading in the evening, fairly clear skies overnight and down to around 13’C.

By Thursday we see our friend, the Azores high, moving in once more.

Still quite a lot of cloud likely, especially through the middle portion of the day and overall more cloud than sunshine. But still, some sunny spells and only a moderate chance of an afternoon shower, say around a 40% chance. Warm, around 23’C or so. Fairly clear skies overnight, and down to around 13’C.

Friday looks a dry day, uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts though I’d favour something on the sunnier side of the spectrum being more likely. Warmer too, around 25’C.

Reasonable confidence for Saturday being fairly sunny and very warm, say around 25’C.

Lower confidence for next Sunday, somewhat more likely is it being fairly sunny and very warm, say around 27’C – but a return to something more showery is very possible instead.

Perhaps slightly lower temperatures and something a bit mixed to start the week after, though likely trending drier and warmer after that.

Still pretty low confidence for August as a whole, but I’m still think overall a drier, sunnier and warmer than normal month is the more likely outcome, with notably hot conditions much less likely than they have been. Perhaps hottest in the latter third of the month.

Have a pleasant Sunday!