Monday 3rd February 2025

A fairly dry week ahead, and we’ll start to pick up a chilly easterly by the end of the week.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

The general picture to start the week sees the Azores High just about keeping weather fronts at bay.

Monday will see a fair amount of cloud around, though it should still be on the bright side quite often, some sunny spells certainly possible at times, more so early and late in the day. Cloud perhaps thick enough around lunchtime/early afternoon for a spot of drizzle. Around 7’C in a fairly light south-westerly breeze. Often cloudy overnight, temperatures down to around 4’C.

Tuesday sees a weakening weather front head east – for most of the day it will be a case of being quite cloudy, but with some sunny spells. The weather front arriving late afternoon, circa 4/5pm, bringing maybe two hours of light-ish rain. Quite windy and quite mild, 10’C. Cloud clearing overnight, temperatures getting down to around 1’C – a frost possible, though perhaps just a bit too much breeze.

Wednesday sees high pressure building over the UK. Generally a bright day, but with hazy sunshine at best as there will be a lot of high cloud, probably mid-level cloud at times. Around 7’C. Clear skies overnight and a frost likely – down to around -2’C. Mist/fog patches possible by dawn.

Thursday sees sunny spells and some cloud at times, though emphasis on sunshine. Around 7’C though an easterly breeze starting to pick up. Clear spells and some cloud overnight, down to around 2’C, a frost possible but probably too much cloud and breeze. Mist/fog patches possible by dawn.

By Friday (well, late Thursday), our high pressure has migrated north-east towards Scandinavia, and we start to develop a more easterly flow – never a warm direction in February, though the continent is not especially cold right now. Not only that, but it will have linked up with the Siberian high.

Quite a lot of cloud around on Friday but some sunny spells. Feeling colder in the easterly breeze, around 5’C. Cloud at times overnight but some clear spells too, a small chance of a light shower and down to around 1’C – a frost possible.

Saturday, broadly speaking, will be fairly cloudy with some sunny spells at times – fairly cold at around 4’C. Some uncertainty as to the chance of some showers, which if they happen should be of rain, but an outside chance of wintriness…will need a couple more days to be sure. Frost possible overnight, but will depend on the amount of cloud around.

Sunday again a bit sketchy on details but broadly still in the fairly cold flow from the east, still fairly cloudy but some sunny spells. A greater chance of some showers, with a small chance of a spell of general rain developing instead. Any precipitation is more likely to be rain, but certainly possible that there could be some sleet/snow mixed in. Roughly around 4’C.

Next week likely starts on the cold side. The more likely outcome sees temperatures recover to normal or even mild later next week – a lower but possible chance that the cold spell continues instead. Probably a fairly dry week once more, though probably not completely dry.

No update on the chance of a sudden stratospheric warming event, I still rate it at around a 20% chance to happen some time around mid-February…personally I’m hoping it doesn’t happen, as it would significantly increase the chance of cold and snow for March…many other background signals have long signalled March should see at least some warm (ish) spring sunshine.

Have a pleasant week.