Monday 10th March 2025

Well we deserved 10 days of sunshine and 5 days of semi-warmth. Back to winter for now, but not much in the way of rain – and some sunshine, if much colder.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

The general set-up to start the week sees high pressure to our north-west, which allows a colder north-easterly flow to set up. The jetstream is much further south across the Mediterranean – it’s going to be notably wet in Portugal and Spain this week.

Today will be mostly cloudy with some occasional bits of rain – not amounting to much at all. A little brightness possible at times too. Still fairly mild at around 11’C in an easterly breeze. Again mostly cloudy overnight with occasional light rain, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts mostly cloudy. It will brighten up somewhat, always a lot of cloud but there will be some bright/sunny spells. The odd light shower around too. Colder, 8’C or so in the north-easterly breeze. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a small chance of a wintry shower and down to roughly 1’C – a frost possible, but perhaps too much cloud and breeze.

By Wednesday the colder air will be much more entrenched. A day of sunny spells and showers, any showers early in the morning could potentially see some sleet/snow mixed in, afterwards more likely rain but still plausible that there could be a wintry mix, especially in any heavy showers. Around 6’C in the cold north-easterly breeze. Clear spells at first though an area of cloud and showers looks probable to spread south in the second half of the night – potentially a wintry mix. Down to around 1’C – a frost plausible if the showers miss us.

Thursday looks a cloudier day. Still some bright/sunny spells at times and a few showers around, though less likely than on Wednesday, and probably of rain should you catch one. Around 6’C, maybe 7’C. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a frost likely, down to around -1’C or so.

Friday should be somewhat sunnier again, though plenty of cloud bubbling up and a few showers too, perhaps a wintry mix if you catch a heavy one, though more likely any showers are rain. Around 7’C in an easterly breeze. Uncertain on cloud amounts overnight – a frost possible, but only if cloud stays away.

Synoptically not much change for the weekend – high pressure still to our north-west, low pressure still to our south.

It should be dry this weekend, some uncertainty on cloud amounts, depending on how close the low pressure to our south is, though I’d be hopeful of at least some sunshine each day – Sunday more so than Saturday on current expectations.

Temperatures still on the chilly side, around 7’C to 9’C, potentially feeling chillier in the breeze/wind, again depending on how close low pressure is to our south.

Low confidence for next week, but more likely than not temperatures increase – perhaps becoming quite warm once more. It’s roughly a 50/30/20 split in my head as to whether it becomes quite warm and pleasant, mild and somewhat unsettled, or some mixture of the two.

The sudden stratospheric warming event happened yesterday, so now we await to see the impacts – which tend to be 2-6 weeks from the event, and more often than not mean blocking highs in positions that bring northerly or easterly flows – similar positioning to this week, in fact. I doubt we’ll see any reaction in the models for a few days, at least.

Have a good week, I should be back on Friday morning most likely.