Warming up notably once more and often sunny. But there will be chances of thundery showers Sunday onwards.
Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.
The general picture sees high pressure remain in control, low pressure far to our north-west, and also a flabby low over Spain/France which will organise somewhat and head closer to us by Sunday/Monday.
Early mist/low cloud will lift quickly on Friday to leave a mostly sunny day, a bit of fair-weather cloud at times. The breeze more easterly and light, so temperatures up a bit to around 19’C. Mostly clear skies overnight though a chance of some mist/low cloud by dawn. Down to around 8’C.
Again any early mist/low cloud quickly clearing on Saturday to leave good spells of sunshine, some cloud bubbling up but plenty of sunshine all day. Warm, 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though some high cloud later, down to around 10’C.
Uncertainty increases for Sunday as the aforementioned shallow low pressure heads north. Most likely it stays dry all day with sunny spells, though sometimes quite hazy. Very warm, around 25’C – maybe a little more. However, there is a chance of a heavy shower breaking out in the afternoon, or perhaps (unlikely but possible) some general showery rain developing – if general rain does develop it should be to our west, but the chance is there. Some cloud overnight and a small chance of a shower or some bits of showery rain – more likely it stays dry. Around 13’C.
Monday is uncertain, but more likely we’ll see some very warm hazy sunshine, perhaps quite humid too – but also some heavy, thundery downpours are likely to break out somewhere over the southern part of Britain, and this area more likely than others. Say a 70% chance of at least some showers, though plausible there is repeated heavy showers/downpours or even general rain developing. Temperatures very dependent on sunshine amounts and how quickly showers break out (assuming they do), anywhere between 20’C and 27’C – the upper part of the scale more likely. Showers fade in the evening, mostly clear skies overnight, down down to around 10’C.
High pressure starts to re-establish itself on Tuesday, the low hangs around for another day though.
Plenty of sunshine to start Tuesday, again cloud will bubble up with some heavy showers, perhaps thundery, breaking out – say a 60% chance of catching a couple. Very warm once more, around 25’C. Clear skies likely overnight, down to around 10’C.
Wednesday sees high pressure back in control. Good spells of sunshine likely with some cloud – an easterly breeze so always a chance of importing some North Sea cloud, at least overnight and for the mornings, but too early to be sure, it seems sunshine more likely as it stands. Assuming a mostly sunny day, then warm again around 22’C.
Thursday and Friday will remain dry, though some uncertainty as to whether we’ll import any North Sea cloud overnight. More likely at least a good portion of each day will be sunny, and temperatures around the 19’C to 21’C range more likely.
Most likely warm and sunny next weekend too, perhaps even very warm/quite hot once more.
What have we done to deserve this all this great weather (great in my opinion, anyway)?!
Yes, it can continue, I see no reason to move away from mostly warm/very warm weather for most of May and June, though there are hints of something a little changeable around the end of May/beginning of June, though with high pressure re-establishing in June after a short changeable spell…perhaps from the south, allowing Spain to finally dry out.
Also a chance of the odd thundery incursion before the end of May.
Enjoy your weekend!
Any comments?
Hi James – yes this weather is enjoyable, but also very worrying – not to mention exhausting for an allotment holder! The scientific consensus seems to be that we are experiencing the first stages of earth’s climate breakdown, whether it’s drought weather like this, supercharged storms, floods, searing temperatures in the global south and also the random unpredictability of what used to be seasonal weather ‘patterns’. Yet everyone (who can afford to) seems to just continue with business as usual, flying all over the world, driving everywhere in underoccupied cars, buying more and more stuff etc. etc. somehow oblivious to the fact that it’s not the ‘environment’ that is being damaged – it’s the ecological niche that allowed humans to develop; the habitat we rely on will disappear in many places and the consequences will be devastating. But hey, it’s sunny in the UK, and if not then I can always fly to somewhere that is.
Nice to see that the comment form on my revamped website works!
I’d be a hypocrite if I commented on the actions of others, with my frequent holidays…although I don’t have a car.
I’m an optimist and believe that technology will save humanity in the end – if the push really comes then we will save ourselves, though at what cost…hmmm. In terms of power generation, for example, we’ve made really significant progress in moving away from carbon-intensive electricity generation. Not enough, but not insignificant.
In terms of this spell, I’d suggest it is more likely because of the sudden stratospheric warming event at the end of March, as opposed to any climate-related changes, though impossible to be certain.
Patterns do seem to get “stuck” in situ for longer nowadays…that I’d assume is climate-related.