Friday 25th April 2025

Warming up!

Thanks to Clare for the photograph.

So we start the forecast period with high pressure building between here and Scandinavia, with the Azores high also trying to move in. Nice.

Patchy mist/fog/low cloud in some places, sunshine in others to start the day – tending to become sunnier for the cloudy spots for a while this morning but then clouding over generally for all before lunchtime. Still bright with some hazy sunshine, reaching around 16’C or so – with more sunshine for the evening. Mostly cloudy overnight as a weather front struggles to push east – perhaps a splash of rain later in the night, around 8’C.

Saturday is a bit of a mish-mash, as we’ll have this weather front over us whilst high pressure is building. A lot of cloud around but there will be hazy sunshine at times. Some showery bits of rain possible, perhaps a heavy shower later in the day, but very easily you stay dry in your location. A bit warmer, 18’C. Cloud gradually thinning overnight, though mist/fog patches may develop by dawn, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees early mist/fog patches but they will lift quickly into sunny spells. Likely quite a lot of fair-weather cloud around from lunchtime onwards, probably more cloud than sun, but still sunny spells and warmer too – 21’C is plausible. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C – a small chance of mist/fog patches by dawn.

By Monday we see high pressure over a good chunk of northern and western Europe, though with low pressure tracking towards the west of Spain/Portugal, which will then act as a heat pump.

Monday itself will be fine, any early mist/fog patches will quickly lift into good spells of sunshine. Again some high cloud possible and more so some fair-weather cloud in the afternoon. Warm, around 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday sees good spells of sunshine all day – just a little bit of cloud. Warm, how much will depend on the exact wind direction, probably closer to 22’C but I wouldn’t rule out anything up to 25’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, around 9’C.

Uncertainty starts to increase for Wednesday, but it will stay fine and dry, very likely it remains mostly sunny, and more likely very warm, say somewhere between 23’C and 26’C. A small chance instead of more of an easterly flow, a bit more cloud but still very pleasant and around 22’C.

Thursday almost definitely remains sunny or mostly so, and more likely remains very warm, if not quite hot – somewhere between 23’C and 27’C. Well, it will be the 1st of May.

Can it last for the bank holiday weekend?

Probably not, though spring so far has been one of upgrades to expectations.

The somewhat more likely outcome as it stands is cooler air spreading down from the north, so temperatures closer to say 13’C to 17’C. But also dry or mostly dry conditions look more likely, sunshine/cloud amounts uncertain.

However, I’d still rate it around a 35% chance that the sunshine and warmth can hang on instead.

A washout bank holiday looks unlikely…low pressure doesn’t seem to be keen on hanging around the UK at the moment.

If you want heat, it could well be proper scorchio (for the time of year) around the Balearics, eastern Spain, southern France, western Italy – that kind of region.

Enjoy your weekend.