Friday 16th May 2025

More warm sunshine to come, though some patchy cloud at times, more so early mornings.

Thanks to Isabel for the glorious photo.

So the general set-up sees high pressure centred over Scotland. We have a north-easterly breeze which will temper temperatures a little, and also bring a risk of some North Sea cloud, but mostly, more warm sunshine.

Friday starts sunny in some places, cloudy in others. The extent of the cloud may increase a little in the first part of the morning before breaking up to leave long spells of sunshine for the rest of the day, again perhaps a bit more cloud floating around later this afternoon. Fairly warm, 21’C just about feasible, though the north-easterly breeze will take the edge off. North Sea cloud likely spills back across overnight, down to around 8’C.

Saturday starts cloudy for most areas, a small chance of some sunny spells here and there. The cloud will break up, but likely taking a while to do so, perhaps taking until late morning to do so. Once it does, there will be good spells of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud, and again fairly warm – around 21’C. Low cloud spills back in overnight, down to around 8’C.

Sunday starts cloudy once more, but again the cloud will gradually break up – roughly by around late morning, give or take. Good spells of sunshine will follow, with a bit of fair-weather cloud. Fairly warm, around 20’C, still a north-easterly breeze. Cloud probably spreading across overnight again, down to around 8’C.

Monday probably starts fairly cloudy but again it will break up to leave good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up – a small chance of a heavy shower breaking out, say a 10% chance. Around 21’C. Low cloud probably spreading across overnight again, down to around 8’C.

By Tuesday there are signs of changes, low pressure in the Atlantic edging closer, but also low pressure over France and Scandinavia edging north/west towards us too.

The latter will increase our chance of showers for Tuesday, and also the uncertainty. More likely we’ll still see reasonable amounts of warm sunshine but say a 40% chance of some heavy, maybe thundery showers breaking out. Around 21’C or so. A small chance perhaps something cloudier with showery rain instead. Probably reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Fairly low confidence for Wednesday, but more likely dry and more likely on the sunny side of the spectrum. Temperatures around 20’C, perhaps a shade under.

Again some uncertainty for Thursday/Friday – low pressure in the Atlantic will be starting to make more progress towards us, at some point during those two days it will likely bring across a weather front with some patchy rain (probably fairly minimal amounts) – otherwise a mixture of cloud and sunshine, and temperatures roughly around 20’C.

For the bank holiday weekend? Yeah…you know. It’s not yet a done deal, but more likely low pressure is increasingly in control, with rain/showers at times, especially Sunday and Monday. Temperatures still quite warm though.

There is an alternative scenario where high pressure hangs on and we get some/all of the bank holiday with very warm sunshine, but I rate it no higher than a 20% chance.

For the week after, there is a very strong and consistent signal for a spell of wet weather, probably lasting into early June too. Temperatures probably quite variable, some quite warm and quite cool weather likely mixed in – and a chance of some brief southerly flows mixed in, so a day or two of very warm/quite hot weather followed by downpours.

Enjoy the sunshine whilst you can! Though it will be back.